Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday

May 17, 2025

May 16, 2025, 06:57 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day’s slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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Pitchers to stream on Friday

Philadelphia Phillies LHP Ranger Suarez opened the season on the 15-day IL with a back injury. He debuted in early May and he was roughed up for seven earned runs on seven hits in just 3 2/3 innings. The southpaw righted the ship in his second outing, hurling seven scoreless stanzas on the road against the Cleveland Guardians. His third start is a juicy home start on Friday against the vulnerable Pittsburgh Pirates. Splits facing left-handers can be misleading, but in this case, Suarez holds the edge over a lineup with the seventh-lowest wOBA and third-highest strikeout rate against southpaws, especially if Oneil Cruz remains sidelined.
A start in South Beach could be exactly what Tampa Bays RHP Taj Bradley needs to get on a roll. He’s experiencing command and control issues. In each of his first two seasons, 65% of Bradley’s pitches were strikes. He’s at 62% this year but is facing a Miami Marlins club sporting the second-lowest walk rate and ninth-poorest home run rate in the league.
It happened, so it can’t be ignored, but take away the outing where he allowed seven runs in five frames to the Chicago Cubs and Dustin May would have a 2.86 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. On Friday, the Los Angeles Dodgers RHP has another opportunity to chip away at his 4.08 ERA in a home date against a Los Angeles Angels lineup fanning at the highest clip against right-handers.

Pitchers to avoid on Friday

As alluded to earlier, far fewer pitches are thrown by southpaws, so splits against lefty pitching are noisy. On Friday, New York Yankees LHP Carlos Rodon takes the hill in the Bronx in the first game of a weekend set with their crosstown rivals. The New York Mets tote the fourth-best wOBA, the second-highest home run rate and the fifth-lowest strikeout rate with a left-hander toeing the rubber. Rodon is enjoying an excellent season, but in leagues with weekly start limits, the safe play is avoiding him.

Today’s best matchups for pitchers

Today’s worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Friday

Today’s best matchups for hitters

Today’s worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today’s top HR prop bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 24% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.21 EV
One reason to bet this: Last year, Guerrero had an average launch angle of 6.0 degrees on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 9.3 degrees.

Gunnar Henderson | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.78 EV
One reason to bet this: Henderson has been hot lately, cracking two homers over the last seven days.

Leody Taveras | OVER 0.5 HR (+1200)
Projection: 9% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.25 EV
One reason to bet this: On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the fifth-shortest among all MLB stadiums.

Today’s top pitcher prop bets

Dustin May | UNDER 5.5 K (-120)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.88 EV
One reason to bet this: Expected catcher Will Smith grades out as a weak pitch framer, per my projections.

Tylor Megill | UNDER 5.5 K (-115)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.42 EV
One reason to bet this: High humidity has a small, yet noteworthy, correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts).The weather report calls for the most humid conditions on the schedule today at 79%.

Carlos Rodon | UNDER 6.5 K (-110)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.02 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system ranks Yankee Stadium as the eighth-worst venue in the league for strikeouts.