Caley’s Prediction: Padres righty Stephen Kolek has seen his ERA balloon to 7.71 since May 10, which is less-than-optimal tonight against the Giants.
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How the National League West will be won will be an exciting story this season. And the latest chapter sees the San Francisco Giants host the San Diego Padres for four games.
The Padres lead the Giants by just one game in the standings, but San Francisco will have a great shot to pull even when they hand the ball to Logan Webb in tonight’s opener, while San Diego counters with Stephen Kolek.
My Padres vs. Giants predictions explain why it could be a short night for the young right-hander.
So, check out my MLB picks for the NL West showdown with first pitch set to go at Oracle Park in San Francisco at 9:45 pm ET, on Monday, June 2.
Padres vs Giants prediction
My Padres vs Giants best bet: Stephen Kolek Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+100 at Caesars)
It has been an up-and-down season to this point for the San Diego Padres. However, they enter this four-game set against the San Francisco Giants at 33-24, one game ahead of the Giants and just two behind the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers.
Now, part of the problem has been injuries to the starting rotation. Joe Musgrove is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Yu Darvish also hasn’t pitched this season as he works his way back from an elbow injury. And more recently, Michael King has been added to the IL.
That means the Padres have had to turn to some young arms to fill the void. That includes Stephen Kolek, who is in his second big-league season and making just his fifth career start.
The 28-year-old right-hander has flashed some potential, including a complete-game shutout of the Colorado Rockies back on May 10. But things have gotten a little tougher since he’s had to face real major-league lineups.
Kolek’s ERA has ballooned to 7.71 while giving up a .300 batting average. Kolek just doesn’t have a ton of swing-and-miss in his game at this point and is getting hit hard as a result. He ranking in the Bottom 2% in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. That also means not a ton of strikeouts, ranking in the 27th percentile.
Now, the Giants aren’t exactly world beaters at the plate, but they have been much better when playing in front of the home crowd at Oracle Park.
San Francisco ranks 10th in batting average, 11th in OPS and 13th in wRC+ when playing at home this season. I like the Giants’ chances of extending Kolek’s slump and tagging him with a few runs in tonight’s matchup.
Give me Over 2.5 earned runs allowed for Kolek, something he has done in three straight starts.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Padres vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Giants -1.5
Heliot Ramos Over 0.5 Runs
Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 Hits
The Padres have hit a rough patch offensively. They rank dead last in batting average and 27th in both OPS and wRC+ over the last two weeks. Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, and Jake Cronenworth are all mired in slumps.
Now, the Padres get a tough matchup against Giants starter Logan Webb, who has a 2.99 expected ERA and a 27.9% strikeout rate, both of which rank in the 80th percentile or better this season.
Basically, with what I broke down above, it means I like the Giants tonight. So, let’s take them on the runline. Then let’s add Heliot Ramos to score a run. He’s hitting .310 and scored six runs over his last 10 games. And let’s close this SGP out Cronenworth Under hits since he is hitting .176 over his last 12 games.
Padres vs Giants odds
Padres vs Giants live odds
Padres vs Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +150 | San Francisco -180
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-150) | San Francisco -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: Over 7.0 | Under 7.0
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Padres vs Giants trend
The Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 14 games for +11.80 Units and a 76% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants.
How to watch Padres vs Giants and game info
| Location | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Monday, 6-2-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | SDPA, NBCSBA |
| Padres starting pitcher | Stephen Kolek (3-1, 4.11 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher | Logan Webb (5-5, 2.82 ERA) |
Padres vs Giants latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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