It’s been a rough week for the Giants, who have dropped seven of their last eight games. The Diamondbacks won the first two games over San Francisco, bouncing back from a surprising home sweep of Miami.
Jake McCarthy and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. powered the Diamondbacks with home runs as Arizona belted four total in an 8-2 win over the Giants on Tuesday, while Zac Gallen struck out 10 and allowed just one earned run over seven innings in a strong rebound performance.
The Giants are set as road dogs in the series finale Wednesday.
Landen Roupp (6-5, 3.43 ERA) gets the start for the Giants after allowing no earned runs over 5.1 innings in a solid outing against the White Sox. Merrill Kelly (7-4, 3.49 ERA) takes the mound for the Diamondbacks following a shaky five-inning start against the Marlins in which he allowed three earned runs.
Let’s get down to business with a prop and prediction for the Wednesday.
Run Line
Moneyline
Total
Roupp has been containing run production with no runs in his last two starts through groundballs and soft contact via his heavy sinker usage. But he is by no means a trustworthy strikeout pitcher. With his prop set at 4.5, I’m confident to take him at -172. His weak 20.2% strikeout rate has produced erratic results in dismissing hitters, even posting 0 strikeouts against the Dodgers last month. The Giants still have the No. 1 bullpen in baseball, so I think they will play a heavy role in supporting Roupp if his lack of potency in Ks should become a problem.
The Giants are unstable, but I still see value in them on Wednesday. Kelly is showing underlying regression signs with a rising 3.92 xERA, and he’s been hard hit, giving up nine earned runs over his last 16 innings, including against weak lineups like the Rockies and Marlins. His hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and exit velocity are trending in the wrong direction per Statcast.
Roupp is coming off back-to-back scoreless outings totaling 11 ⅓ innings and has helped the Giants win three of his last four starts. To make his workload a tad lighter, Arizona will be without two of its best bats in both Josh Naylor and Corbin Carroll. The Giants have familiarity with Kelly, batting .240 in 135 career plate appearances against him, and Willy Adames, in particular, has hit him well. With Arizona losing four of its last five games and showing bullpen inconsistency, this is a prime spot to fade the D-backs and back the Giants to get a much-needed win.
Pick: Giants (-144 at FanDuel)
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