After hitting 30 home runs in each of the last two seasons, Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. only has 11 homers over his first 90 games in 2025. However, he does lead baseball with 30 doubles and his 92.9 mph average exit velocity is actually a career-high, so there’s a chance he’ll turn around his power production in the more hitter-friendly conditions of summer. It’s been eight games since Witt hit his last home run, but the silver lining is that it’s driven his line up to +550 for Sunday in the latest MLB HR odds from BetMGM.
Witt’s one of our top picks for our MLB home run parlay today and you can also get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses with this BetMGM promo code. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 24.6 units on its MLB HR picks this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Sunday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Sunday, July 6:
Bobby Witt Jr., Royals (+550)
He’s 16-for-39 during a current nine-game hitting streak entering Sunday night’s matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks. His power numbers are down, but the batted-ball profile would seem to indicate that he’s generating the right kind of contact to change that. He’s 86th percentile among MLB hitters or better in average exit velocity, bat speed and launch-angle sweet spot.
“Witt is swinging a hot bat coming into today’s game with hits in each of his last nine games including four multi-hit efforts, but he hasn’t shown much power this season,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “Anthony DeSclafani, has bounced in and out of the majors over the past few seasons, but when he does pitch, he has been prone to giving up HRs.”
Pete Alonso, Mets (+450)
Alonso has already launched 20 homers this season and he also leads the National League in doubles (25). He’s also 99th percentile among MLB hitters in average exit velocity (94.5 mph), barrel rate (20.6%) and 98th percentile in hard-hit contact rate (56.0%).
“Alonso crushed two home runs against the Yankees yesterday, and while he’s facing one of the better pitchers in the majors, Max Fried, he does have solid career numbers against him,” Fetner said. “Alonso has liked playing in day games this season. He is hitting .323 with a 1.037 OPS in 34 day games this season.” This price is being offered at FanDuel and you can get $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins with the latest FanDuel promo code.
Kyle Stowers, Marlins (+550)
The former second-round pick struggled to earn an everyday role in Baltimore, but he’s getting regular at-bats and making the most of them in Miami. He’s slashing .283/.355/.519 over 319 plate appearances this season and his 19.6% barrel rate is 98th percentile among MLB hitters. He’ll also have an intriguing matchup with the Brewers on Sunday with their expected starter coming off major surgery.
“Stowers has hit all 16 of his HRs this season against RHPs, and he is facing a RHP in Brandon Woodruff who is making his first start in nearly two seasons after having Tommy John Surgery. Woodruff is great when healthy, but its reasonable to expect some struggles when he starts facing MLB hitters, especially someone as hot as Stowers is at the plate,” Fetner said. “We set the line at +450 for Stowers to hit a HR.” DraftKings has the best price here and you can also get $150 in bonus bets instantly with this DraftKings promo code.
Where to bet MLB props on Sunday
Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Sunday:
More MLB picks for Sunday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 36-34-1 roll (+614) on MLB picks.
