Fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups featuring Austin Hays, Grant Holmes and more

Even though it’s very early into the 2025 fantasy baseball season, many of you might be looking at a roster that only partially resembles the team you drafted. Since roster churn is the name of the game, I’m running it back with your favorite speculator piece with my patented data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners … today.

Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure player statistics regarding control, batted ball quality and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them together to identify some cheap gems to grab before the squares figure it out next week. At the bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, two-start pitchers and speculative adds.

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Hitters

When it comes to hitting, opportunity may be king, but we still need production, which comes from underlying skills. Scores of studies have proven the impact of exit velocity and its direct relationship with slugging percentage, so raw power is always a great place to start. The list below utilizes contact frequency and quality, paired with advanced statistics to identify underlying hitting skills.

Identifying available underlying hitting skills

Hitters in this table have +86% zone-contact, +43% hard-hit, a +.345 expected weighted on-base average and at least 30 plate appearances in the past 14 days.

Generally not one to leap at small samples, my home-league waivers run on Thursday night, so a decision must be made. I’ve always liked Austin Hays on a per-plate-appearance basis; he just never got enough of them as a short-side platoon player. This time around, he’s with the Reds and tracking to get the lion’s share of ABs in one of MLB’s most optimal hitting environments. Add in the fact Hays looks healthy, and you can see why it may make sense to leap before we look if early returns are any indication — 8 PA; 3 Hits, 1 Run, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 20.0% Barrel, .618 xwOBAcon. (Note: As I was writing this, Hays went yard again — OK, I’m all in with my top free-agent priority.)

It may be a little early in the season to category chase, but home runs are at a premium again this year, despite the torpedo bat craze. And while this week’s top post-hype sleeper, Matt Mervis, comes with some pretty obvious disciplinary flaws (40.0% K, 19.8% Swinging Strike), the power is absolutely undeniable. Miami’s 27-year-old reclamation project is putting up the type of cartoonish underlying power metrics that can’t be ignored — 1.058 OPS, 56.5% Hard Hit, 21.7% Barrel, .573 xwOBAcon. Despite solely fulfilling strong-side platoon duties, which will cap playing time, there’s no better add anywhere in fantasy if you need long balls.

Speaking of post-hype disappointments who play for the Marlins, one of my favorite preseason sleepers will finally make his 2025 debut this week. I couldn’t have been more excited to see former second-round pick Connor Norby penciled into the Marlins lineup, and I’m stashing him on every available fantasy bench. Part of me actually hopes he stinks for a few days so he isn’t the most popular Sunday night waiver wire add among the normies. He’s another player with some strikeout issues, but still only 24 years old, his destiny is far from determined. I’d also like to point out the pretty strong 600-PA 5×5 pace in his cup of coffee with Miami in 2024 — .247 BA, 107 R, 63 RBI, 26 HR, 11 SB. Here’s a list of the other players to post a combination of +14.5% Barrel, +.410 xwOBAcon, and +13% Pulled FBLD in 2024: Marcell Ozuna, Shohei Ohtani, Kerry Carpenter, Jhonkensy Noel, Corey Seager, Brent Rooker, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Schwarber. Yeah, those guys are all pretty good.

Top hitter waiver wire adds, by position

Catcher

1. Sean Murphy (ATL): 10+ teams
2. Hunter Goodman (COL): 12+ teams
3. Dillon Dingler (DET): 12+ teams
4. Ryan Jeffers (MIN): 12/15 teams
5. Carson Kelly (CHC): 12/15 teams
6. Pedro Pagés (STL): 15+ teams
7. Edgar Quero (CHW): 15+ teams
8. Matt Thaiss (CHW): AL only
9. Miguel Amaya (CHC): NL only

First Base

1. Jonathan Aranda (TB): 12+ teams
2. Matt Mervis (MIA): 12/15 teams
3. Andrew Vaughn (CHW): 12/15 teams
4. Ty France (MIN): 12/15 teams
5. Kyle Manzardo (CLE): 15+ teams
6. Eric Wagaman (MIA): NL only
7. Enmanuel Valdez (PIT): NL only
8. Jonah Bride (MIN): AL only (just traded across leagues)
9. Cavan Biggio (KC): AL only
10. Curtis Mead (TB): AL only

Second Base

1. Caleb Durbin (MIL) 10+ teams
2. Dylan Moore (SEA) 10+ teams
3. Colt Keith (DET): 12+ teams
4. Max Muncy (ATH): 10/12 teams
5. Gavin Lux (CIN): 12/15 teams
6. Kyle Farmer (COL): 15+ teams
7. Nolan Gorman (STL): 15+ teams
8. Adael Amador (COL): 15+ teams
9. David Hamilton (BOS): AL only
10. Will Wagner (TOR): AL only
11. Thomas Saggese (STL): NL only
12. Garrett Hampson (ARI): NL only

Shortstop

1. Zach Neto (LAA): 10+ teams
2. Geraldo Perdomo (ARI): 10+ teams
3. Tyler Fitzgerald (SF): 12+ teams ***
4. Jacob Wilson (ATH): 12+ teams
5. Chase Meidroth (CHW): 12+ teams
6. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT): 12/15 teams
7. Trey Sweeney (DET): 15+ teams
8. Nasim Nuñez (TB): 15+ teams ***
9. Tim Anderson (LAA) AL only
10. Jacob Amaya (CHW): AL only
11. Edmundo Sosa (PHI): NL only
12. Nick Allen (ATL): NL only

Third Base

1. Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT): 10+ teams
2. Jorge Polanco (SEA): 10/12 teams
3. Connor Norby (MIA): 10/12 teams
4. Joey Ortiz (MIL): 12+ teams
5. Gabriel Arias (CLE): 12/15 teams
6. Brooks Lee (MIN): 15+ teams
7. Miguel Vargas (CHW): 15+ teams
8. Ramón Urías (BAL): AL only
9. Gio Urshela (ATH): AL only
10. Santiago Espinal (CIN): NL only

Outfield, 10/12 teams

1. Austin Hays (OF, CIN)
2. Pavin Smith (ARI)
3. Heston Kjerstad (BAL)
4. Jordan Walker (STL)
5. Kameron Misner (TB) ^^^

Outfield, 12/15 teams

1. Alek Thomas (ARI) ^^^
2. Sal Frelick (MIL)
3. Trent Grisham (NYY) ^^^
4. Jake Mangum (TB) ***
5. Mike Yastrzemski (SF) ^^^

Outfield 15+ teams only

1. Jesús Sánchez (MIA)
2. Zac Veen (COL)
3. Kyle Stowers (MIA)
4. Gavin Sheets (SD)
5. Ryan O’Hearn (BAL)
6. Mickey Moniak (COL)
7. Alan Roden (TOR)
8. Trevor Larnach (MIN)
9. Zach McKinstry (DET)
10. Leody Taveras (TEX)
11. Harrison Bader (MIN)
12. Jake Meyers (HOU) ***
13. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. (MIN)
14. Jhonkensy Noel (CLE): AL only
15. Addison Barger (TOR): AL only
16. Ryan Kreidler (DET): AL only
17. Oscar Gonzalez (SD): NL only
18. Alexander Canario (PIT): NL only
19. Luis Matos (SF): NL only

*** = Prioritize for speed

^^^ = Riser

Graduating class

Players from previous articles no longer under 50% rostered (Yahoo) who should be rostered first

• Ben Rice (1B, NYY)
• Kyren Paris (OF, LAA)
• Jung Hoo Lee (OF, SF)
• Spencer Torkelson (1B, DET)
• Tyler Soderstrom (1B, ATH)

Hitter stash candidates

• Nick Kurtz (1B, ATH)
• Roman Anthony (OF, BOS)
• Marcelo Mayer (SS, BOS)
• Nick Yorke (2B, PIT)

Hitter drop candidates

• Matt Shaw (3B, CHC)
• Jose Miranda (3B, MIN)
• Victor Robles (OF, SEA)
• Orlando Arcia (SS, ATL)

Pitchers

As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn’t be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are suppressing runs by keeping runners off base and striking out batters. Though simply showing up on this list so early may be noise, there’s an argument that this combination of skills signals an immediate call to action.

Identifying available underlying pitching skills

Pitchers in this table have a ≤3.50 expected earned run average, ≤1.20 WHIP, +19.0% strikeout minus walk rate, with a minimum of five innings pitched.

One small sample overreaction was enough for today. This time, I’d like to take the other side of that theory for Atlanta’s No. 5 starter, Grant Holmes. Even after an offseason of hype from people like me, all it took was some weird usage and a few bad innings for the fantasy community to discard the 29-year-old righty’s productive rookie season — 69.1 IP; 3.60 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .665 OPS, 17.5% Swinging Strike, 19.5% K/BB. Rostered in just 30% of Yahoo leagues, too many fantasy gamers are allowing themselves to be swayed by a 15% walk rate through just 16.2 IP. Due to odd scheduling early on, Holmes is only now being established as a regular rotation piece. On Monday, he traveled to Toronto and pitched beautifully, earning a quality start and win for Atlanta — 7.2 IP; 2 Hits, 4 K, 2 BB, 3 ER. It’s also worth noting Holmes was probably left in a little too long — half his baserunners allowed and two of the three earned runs happened in the eighth inning. I’m prioritizing Holmes in any and all leagues where he’s available.

Top waiver wire pitcher adds

Finding Mr. Right: Starters who could stick all year

1. Grant Holmes (ATL) ^^^
2. Hayden Wesneski (HOU)
3. Landen Roupp (SF)
4. Max Meyer (MIA) ^^^
5. Tyler Mahle (TEX) ^^^
6. David Festa (MIN) ^^^
7. Jackson Jobe (DET)
8. Matthew Liberatore (STL)
9. José Soriano (LAA)
10. Cade Povich (BAL)
11. Landon Knack (LAD)

Team Streamers: Hold and deploy from the bench

1. David Peterson (NYM)
2. Andrew Heaney (PIT)
3. Luis L. Ortiz (CLE)
4. Ben Brown (CHC)
5. Shane Smith (CHW)
6. J.T. Ginn (ATH)
7. Jose Quintana (MIL)
8. Andre Pallante (STL)
9. Easton Lucas (TOR)
10. Will Warren (NYY)
11. Nick Martinez (CIN)
12. Jordan Hicks (SF)
13. Martín Pérez (CHW)
14. Mitch Keller (PIT)
15. Mitchell Parker (WAS)

One-and-done: Pitch-and-ditch desperation plays

1. Edward Cabrera (MIA)
2. Osvaldo Bido (ATH)
3. Griffin Canning (NYM)
4. Randy Vasquez (SD)
5. Hunter Dobbins (BOS)
6. Zack Littell (TB)
7. JP Sears (ATH)
8. Sean Burke (CHW)
9. Kyle Hart (SD)
10. Kyle Hendricks (LAA)
11. Davis Martin (CHW)
12. Jack Kochanowicz (LAA)
13. Carson Spiers (CIN)
14. Taijuan Walker (PHI)

^^^ = Riser

Pitcher stash candidates

• Jack Leiter (TEX)
• Zebby Matthews (MIN)
• Brandon Young (BAL)
• Braxton Ashcraft (PIT)
• Lucas Giolito (BOS)
• Bubba Chandler (PIT)
• Hayden Birdsong (SF)
• Kyle Gibson (BAL)

Pitcher drop candidates

• Justin Steele (SP, CHC)
• AJ Smith-Shawver (SP, ATL)
• Mike Clevinger (RP, CHW)
• Richard Fitts (SP, BOS)

Relievers

1. Luke Jackson (TEX)
2. Dennis Santana (PIT)
3. José Alvarado (PHI)
4. Seth Halvorsen (COL)
5. Emilio Pagán (CIN)
6. Tommy Kahnle (DET)
7. Abner Uribe (MIL)
8. Jordan Leasure (CHW)
9. Anthony Bender (MIA)
10. Camilo Doval (SF)
11. Alexis Diaz, (CIN)

Graduating class

Players from previous articles no longer under 50% rostered (Yahoo) who should be rostered first

• Kris Bubic (SP, KC)
• Matthew Boyd (SP, CHC)

Ranking next week’s available two-start pitchers

For more MLB news, follow me on X @JohnLaghezza.

(Top photo of Austin Hays: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)