Preview: New Zealand vs Ivory Coast – prediction, team news, lineups


Sports Mole previews Saturday’s International Friendlies clash between New Zealand and Ivory Coast, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

New Zealand and Ivory Coast are set to face off in a friendly encounter at BMO Field as part of the Canadian Shield Tournament, in what will be the first-ever meeting between the two nations.

The invitational competition features four nations, each playing two matches, with the highest-ranked team emerging as champion, making a strong start all the more crucial here.

 


Match preview

New Zealand come into this fixture brimming with confidence, riding the wave of six consecutive wins across all competitions in a run that has seen them light up the scoreboard.

Darren Bazeley’s men have netted a whopping 33 goals and conceded just once during that spell, with five of those matches coming in the World Cup qualifiers and the other being a thumping 4-0 victory over Malaysia in a friendly.

The All Whites’s most recent involvement came during the March international break when they cruised past Fiji 7-0 in the third round of the Oceania preliminaries before brushing aside New Caledonia 3-0 to secure the region’s sole ticket to the 2026 World Cup.

Having proven too strong for the nations in their confederation, New Zealand — currently placed 86th in the FIFA World Rankings — now face one of their biggest challenges in recent memory, as they square up against an opponent 45 places above them.

It will also be a chance to banish their recent woes against African opposition, having failed to win any of their last three meetings — a draw against DR Congo, a narrow 1-0 loss to Egypt on March 22 last year, and a penalty shootout defeat to Tunisia four days later.

Ivory Coast winger Simon Adingra on September 4, 2024

As for Ivory Coast, this fixture arrives during a period of optimism and recovery under head coach Emerse Fae, who has swiftly turned fortunes around since taking over midway through the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations.

The 41-year-old was thrust into the hot seat after the group stage exit looked imminent, particularly following a humiliating 4-0 defeat at the hands of Equatorial Guinea in front of their home fans in Abidjan.

However, from the brink of collapse, Fae led the Elephants through the back door as one of the best third-placed teams and into an unforgettable run that saw the team lift the trophy after defeating Nigeria in the final.

Since that famous night, the West African giants have largely stayed on course, with 10 wins from 15 matches, alongside two draws and just three defeats across all competitions.

That record also includes qualification for the next edition of the AFCON in Morocco, and a promising start to their 2026 World Cup campaign, where Ivory Coast currently lead Group F.

Their most recent outings came via back-to-back 1-0 wins over Burundi and Gambia, leaving the Eleohants one point above second-placed Gabon with four matches to go, and the Canadian Shield Tournament now offers a chance to gather momentum before the final, decisive stretch of qualifying.

 

New Zealand form (all competitions):

 

Ivory Coast form (all competitions):


Team News

Ivory Coast midfielder Franck Kessie on March 26, 2024

New Zealand’s 23-man squad features some players who ply their trade in England, including Northampton Town goalkeeper Nick Zanew and Reading defender Tyler Bindon, among others.

Leading the line for the All Whites is Nottingham Forest striker Chris Wood, who comes into this encounter fresh from a stunning 2024-25 Premier League campaign.

The 33-year-old found the net 20 times in England’s top flight last season, playing a pivotal role in helping the Tricky Trees clinch a European berth.

Ivory Coast boast a squad packed with European-based talent, including former Arsenal forward Nicolas Pepe, Simon Adingra of Brighton & Hove Albion and Utrecht’s Sebastien Haller, who famously netted the winning goal in the AFCON final.

The only two players drawn from outside Europe are Frank Kessie, who features for Al-Ahli in Saudi Arabia, and goalkeeper Badra Ali Sangare of South African outfit Sekhukhune United.

 

New Zealand possible starting lineup:

Crocombe; Cacace, Bindon, Cacace, De Vries; Bell, Singh, Stemanic; Garbett, Wood, McCowatt

Ivory Coast possible starting lineup:

Fofana; Singo, Gbamin, Kossounou, Operi; Sangare, Kessie; Pepe, M. Diomande, Adingra; Haller


SM words green background

We say: New Zealand 1-2 Ivory Coast

While New Zealand have been firing on all cylinders in recent outings, this will be a sterner examination of their credentials as Ivory Coast offer a step up in quality – and with memories still fresh of their last defeat to African opposition, the All Whites could once again find themselves outmatched.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.



 


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a New Zealand win with a probability of 55.84%. A draw has a probability of 22.2% and a win for Ivory Coast has a probability of 21.92%.

The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.32%) and 2-0 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.36%), while for a Ivory Coast win it is 1-2 (5.77%).


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